Editorial: The 1973 referendum on Northern Ireland’s status was an extraordinary result which still resonates today

This week marks 50 years since the first border poll in Northern Ireland.

The 1973 result was extraordinary. Nationalists boycotted it, as they had boycotted so much about the NI state post 1921. Even so, an astonishing 591,280 people out of an electorate of 1,029,544 voted to stay in the UK. That was 57% of eligible voters, a thumping majority.

Given that such referendums never have a turnout out 100% or anything near it (unless they are tinpot dictatorships with rigged votes) the pro Union majority would have been a far higher percentage than 57% if nationalists had participated.

For example, even if the turnout had been 90% (which is higher than almost any election in recent UK history) and even if every single extra participant had backed joining the Republic of Ireland, two highly implausible scenarios, the unionist percentage of the vote would have been 63%.

Why does this matter half a century later when much is changed? For two reasons. The first is that the illegitimacy of the IRA campaign was evident that far back.

Every voter was given a democratic chance to register whether they thought NI within the UK a legitimate entity. They had a non violent route, but a clear majority backed the status quo.

It also matters because for all the changes in NI (and there have been many) the much touted demographic change (gleefully cited by some nationalists) has been gradual over 100 years. The fall in Protestants is in large part because they were earlier into secularism than the Catholic community.

Polls prior to Brexit consistently showed support for staying in a nation as attractive as the UK at 60%+ of those who expressed a view. There are no grounds for unionist complacency. A 62% vote can fast become a 52% one. But nor should unionists succumb to gloom amid republican taunts of an inevitable all Ireland.