Owen Polley: The overall unionist vote is more important than the fight for first minister

The republican party had previously encouraged the notion that, if it became the top party in Northern Ireland as well as the south, an early referendum on the constitutional question was inevitable.

Its leaders constantly adjusted the likely timescale for this vote, so as not to scare-off nervous voters, but a central part of their campaign was the idea that ‘unity’ was a pressing issue.

In contrast, last week, Michelle O’Neill conceded, “I don’t think people woke up this morning thinking about that (a border poll). I think people woke up this morning thinking about the cost of living crisis.”

This was a pragmatic change in emphasis, even if it was not entirely convincing.

For the time being, the party is prepared to ease-up on its border poll rhetoric because there is a glaring lack of interest in Northern Ireland being absorbed by the Republic.

It’s highly probable that Sinn Fein’s attitude will be different after the election, but, for now, its change in tack is inconvenient for the DUP.

A central part of Jeffrey Donaldson’s campaign message is that republicans will push for a divisive and unnecessary referendum, if his party does not come top in May.

Last week, he reiterated this view, “Sinn Fein wants to win this election to implement their plan for a border poll… The DUP is the only party that can stop Sinn Fein’s border poll plans.”

This line is not exactly redundant, just because Michelle O’Neill knows there is no pressing desire, even among nationalists, to abolish Northern Ireland, but it is less powerful.

Sinn Fein probably will campaign strenuously for a referendum after ballots are cast in May.

However, this won’t be because it genuinely thinks it can persuade the government that a poll is merited, or that people would vote for a 32-county republic given the opportunity.

Instead, republicans will strive to manufacture yet another grievance that they can nurture carefully for years to come.

If it takes this route, Sinn Fein will follow the SNP’s example, by claiming that Westminster is thwarting popular demand for a border poll, against the will of the voters who made it the largest party.

That is a potential annoyance for unionists, particularly as the government has previously shown weakness in the face of nationalist grievance-mongering, but, by itself, it’s not a compelling argument to stick with the DUP.

Repeatedly, the most reliable surveys of opinion show that the direct challenge of a border poll is not much threat to Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom.

The Protocol demonstrates that the Union is in far more danger of being steadily eroded, until it barely matters whether this province is in the UK, an all-Ireland republic or something in between.

To stop that trend, and to demonstrate even more strongly that there is no interest in a border poll, it’s far more important that unionist parties return more MLAs, or at least maintain their current position, rather than keep the first minister’s post.

There’s no denying that it would be difficult for unionists to accept a Sinn Fein first minister, or to cope with a symbolic victory by a party that unrepentantly glorifies its terrorist past.

It would be far more serious, though, if the overall unionist vote were to fall closer to 40%, like it did during the 2019 general election, or if nationalists won more seats in the Assembly than unionism overall.

For years the UUP, and other unionist rivals, claimed that the DUP deliberately engineered a perpetual clash with Sinn Fein to determine who would become first minister at Stormont.

The legislation that enacted the St Andrews Agreement of 2006 changed the Belfast Agreement, so that the leader of the largest party, rather than the leader of the biggest party in the biggest designation, would take the post.

This time, a short-sighted focus on who becomes first minister could be particularly destructive.

That role, while it carries a certain amount of prestige, comes with powers identical to the deputy first minister’s post.

In contrast, a poor overall result for unionist parties could be misused to imply that people accept an unreformed protocol, or that there really is demand for a polarising border referendum.

Although the opinion polls show strong support for Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom, pro-Union electors feel distinctly underwhelmed by the way that they’ve been represented in recent years.

The identity of the next first minister (if there is one) is less important than making sure that those people continue to cast their votes for a unionist party, which cannot be taken for granted.